Grain Marketing Highlights – March 11, 2011

Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu

Executive Summary: USDA’s March Supply and Demand Report
The day of the release of USDA’s March 10 Supply and Demand report trader attention was said to be turning to USDA’s Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports to be released on March 31 . The next monthly supply and demand report will be released on April 8 . Today, the day after the release of the report, trader attention is turning to the stock market in anticipation of a large drop due to the earthquake that hit Japan yesterday afternoon. The commodity markets are expected to follow the Dow.

Ending Stocks for U.S. corn and soybeans were unchanged from last month, with only minor adjustments made to the balance sheets. U.S. Corn ending stocks for the ‘10/’11 marketing year were unchanged at 675 million bushels. U.S. soybean ending stocks were unchanged at 140 million bushels. U.S. Wheat ending stocks were increased by 25 million bushels from last month due to a 25 million bushel decrease in the estimate for exports, now projected at 843 million bushels.

World corn ending stocks were increased slightly, from 122.51 MMT in February to 123.14 MMT.

World soybean ending stocks were placed at 58.33 MMT, as compared to 58.21 MMT last month. The estimate for Brazilian soybean production was increased 1.5 MMT, from 68.5 to 70.0 MMT. Argentina’s production was left unchanged at 49.5 MMT.

For world wheat, USDA increased ending stocks to 181.9 MMT from 177.77 MMT last month. Australian wheat production is now projected at 26.0 MMT, an increase of 1 MMT from a month ago. The estimate for Canadian wheat was left unchanged at 23.2 MMT.

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (billion bushels) 2010-2011

Mar. Average High Low Feb. 2009-10
Corn 0.675 0.667 0.702 0.625 0.675 1.708
Soybeans 0.140 0.141 0.181 0.121 0.140 0.151
Wheat 0.843 0.809 0.843 0.751 0.818 0.976
Sorghum 0.037 0.037 0.041 0.032 0.037 0.041

WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2010-2011

Mar. Average High Low Feb. 2009-10
Corn 123.14 121.63 122.51 120.00 122.51 145.16
Soybeans 58.33 59.19 60.00 122.51 58.21 60.17
Wheat 181.90 177.57 179.20 175.20 177.77 197.60

WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons)

2010-2011 2009-2010
Mar. Feb. Mar. Feb.
Brazil Corn 53.0 51.0 56.1 56.1
Argentina Corn 22.0 22.0 22.8 22.8
Brazil Soybeans 70.0 68.5 69.0 69.0
Argentina Soybeans 49.5 49.5 54.5 54.5
Australia Wheat 26.0 25.0 21.9 21.9
Canada Wheat 23.2 23.2 26.9 26.9

Market Strategy

As expected, commodity markets have opened lower this morning. The Dow, crude oil, and the dollar are also lower. We have entered an unfavorable period for commodity marketing. It is always tougher to make sales decisions in declining markets. Currently, corn, soybean, and SRW wheat are trading double digits lower with Dec ‘11 corn futures at $5.80; Nov ‘11 soybeans at $13.05; and July ‘11 SRW wheat at $7.53 per bushel. April ‘11 crude is trading at $102.70; the nearby U.S. dollar Index at 76.995; and the Dow is 11,945. Place sales decisions on hold unless needing to play catch-up.

For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.

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