Grain Marketing Highlights – April 15, 2011

Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu

Outside Forces Impacting Commodity Prices
The sell-off in commodity prices on Tuesday this week was largely attributed to a report issued by Goldman Sachs that recommended liquidating a portion of investor held commodity baskets, commonly referred to as profit taking. Supply fears, stronger crude, and wet weather possibly causing a slow start to the 2011 U.S. planting season continue to support corn, which in turn is supportive to the soybean and wheat markets. The weekly export sales report, released this morning, was bullish for corn and soybeans, neutral for wheat.

USDA Export Sales Report 04/14
Pre-report estimates had weekly corn export sales at 21.7 to 35.4 million bushels. The weekly report showed export sales of 34.0 million bushels of old crop, well above the 19.0 million bushels needed to keep pace with USDA’s export demand projection of 1.95 billion bushels. Total shipments of 43.2 million bushels were also above the 43.1 million bushels needed this week to stay on pace with USDA’s projection.

Pre-report estimates for weekly export sales of soybeans ranged from 7.3 to 12.9 million bushels. The weekly report showed old-crop sales of 4.8 million bushels, above the 4.3 million bushels needed this week to stay on pace with USDA’s demand projection of 1.58 billion bushels. Shipments of 20.4 million bushels were also above the 13.6 million bushels needed this week.

Pre-report estimates for wheat ranged from 14.7 to 25.7 million bushels. The weekly report showed export sales of 16.3 million bushels, above the 4.0 million bushels needed this week to stay on pace with USDA’s export demand projection of 1.275 billion bushels. Shipments of 26.6 million bushels were below the 39.0 million bushels needed this week.

Market Strategy
Commodity prices are trading in an extremely volatile fashion, as traders seemingly await the next shoe to drop. After making new life of contract highs for old and new crop corn on Monday, commodity prices have bid up and down all week. The next item of interest will be crop progress, to be reported next Monday, that should give an indication of whether planting is delayed in the Corn Belt. Currently, Dec ‘11 corn futures are $6.42; Nov ‘11 soybeans $13.36; and July ‘11 SRW wheat futures are $7.77 per bushel.

For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.

 

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