Grain Marketing Highlights – May 13, 2011

Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu

USDA’s May 2011 Supply and Demand Report Highlights

2010-11 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Billion Bushels)

  May Average High Low April 2009-10
Corn 0.730 0.665 0.700 0.565 0.675 1.708
Soybeans 0.170 0.153 0.180 0.140 0.140 0.151
Grain Sorghum 0.032 0.031 0.034 0.028 0.032 0.041
Wheat 0.839 0.844 0.868 0.825 0.839 0.976

 

2011-12 U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Billion Bushels)

May Average High Low
Corn 0.900 0.811 1.025 0.574
Soybeans 0.160 0.176 0.250 0.122
Grain Sorghum 0.037 0.038 0.045 0.029
Wheat 0.702 0.674 0.800 0.432

 

2011-12 WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION (Billion Bushels)

2011 May Average High Low 2010-11
All Wheat 2.043 2.042 2.107 1.988 2.208
All Winter Wheat 1.424 1.389 1.460 1.300 1.485
HRW 0.762 0.767 0.960 0.650 1.018
SRW 0.427 0.392 0.450 0.240 0.238
White 0.235 0.231 0.260 0.219 0.229

 

WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons)

2011-12 2010-11
May May April
Wheat 181.26 182.2 182.83
Corn 129.14 122.19 122.43
Soybeans 61.85 63.81 60.94

 

WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons)

2011-12 2010-11
May May April
FSU-12 100.6 80.97 81.0
EU-27 138.62 135.76 136.1
Brazil corn 55.0 55.0 55.0
Argentina corn 26.0 22.0 22.0
Brazil soybeans 72.5 73.0 72.0
Argentine soybeans 53.0 49.5 49.5
     

2010-2011 U.S. ENDING STOCKS
USDA increased U.S. corn ending stocks for the ‘10/‘11 marketing year to 730 million bushels, compared to 675 million bushels last month. In the initial estimates for the ‘11/‘12 marketing year, USDA increased stocks for corn while decreasing stocks for wheat and soybeans. This takes the U.S. ending stocks-to-use ratio for corn to 5.4%.

Soybean ending stocks were increased to 170 million bushels, as compared to 140 million bushels in April, due to a 10 million bushel decrease in exports and an 11 million bushel reduction in residual use. The stocks-to-use ratio is 5.1%.

Domestic wheat ending stocks remained unchanged at 839 million bushels, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 34.2%.

2011-2012 U.S. ENDING STOCKS
USDA’s May supply and demand projections for the ‘11/‘12 marketing year should be considered tentative at best. U.S. corn ending stocks are projected to increase to 900 million bushels, using the March Planting Intentions of 92.2 million acres and a projected yield of 158.7 bushels per acre. Total use was decreased from the current year’s estimate of 13.450 billion bushels to 13.355 for the new crop, placing ending stocks-to-use at 6.7%.

Soybean ending stocks are projected to drop to 160 million bushels, assuming planted acreage at 76.6 million acres and a projected yield of 43.4 bushels per acre equates to a production estimate of 3.285 billion bushels. Total demand estimated at 3.31 billion bushels, places the ending stocks-to-use ratio at just 4.8%.

All wheat ending stocks for the ‘11/‘12 marketing year are projected at 702 million bushels.

2010-2011 WORLD ENDING STOCKS
World ending stocks are projected to increase for ‘10/‘11 corn and soybeans, while declining slightly for wheat. This places the world corn stocks-to-use ratio at 15% and the soybean ratio at 23.5%.

Market Strategy
USDA’s May report is viewed as bearish for corn, neutral to slightly bearish for soybeans, and neutral to slightly bullish for wheat. Commodity trading attention will now turn to U.S. planting progress for the 2011 row crop season. Currently, Dec ‘11 corn futures are trading at $6.30 (down 22); Nov ‘11 soybeans at $13.13 (down 9); and July ‘11 SRW wheat at $7.83 (down 15).

For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.

 

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