Grain Marketing Highlights – June 10 , 2011

Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu

USDA June Supply and Demand Highlights

Corn Analysis
The importance of today’s report is likely to be short lived due to the uncertainty facing U.S. farmers in getting this year’s corn and soybean crops planted. The report will be short lived due to the likelihood that trader attention will now turn to U.S. and world weather and its resulting impact upon the 2011 growing season. Surprisingly, USDA made a downward adjustment to 2011 U.S. corn acres. This is surprising because USDA doesn’t release actual planting numbers until June 30. Ending corn stocks for the current marketing year were left unchanged, however, the ending stocks estimate for the ‘11/’12 marketing year was reduced. World corn ending stocks were also reduced for the current and next marketing years. The estimate for the season average farm price, now placed at $6.00 to $7.00 per bushel, was increased 50 cents per bushel on both ends of the price range.

Soybean Analysis
Ending stocks for U.S. soybeans were increased for the current and next marketing years. World soybean stocks were reduced for the current and increased slightly for the next marketing year. There were no adjustments made to U.S. soybean acreage nor production in this month’s report. World production numbers were left unchanged. The projection for the season average farm price, now estimated at $13.00 to $15.00 per bushel, was increased $1.00 per bushel from last month.

Wheat Analysis
U.S. wheat ending stocks were reduced 30 million bushels from last month for the current marketing year and 15 million bushels for the ‘11/‘12 marketing year. World ending stocks for all wheat are expected to increase for the current and next marketing years. The projected season average farm price for all wheat was increased 20 cents per bushel on both ends of the price range, now estimated at $7.00 to $8.40 per bushel.

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million bushels) 2010-2011

  June Avg High Low May 2009-10
Corn 730 706 780 565 730 1,708
Soybeans 180 176 195 142 170 151
Grain sorghum 32 31 34 28 32 41
Wheat 809 842 868 824 839 976

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million bushels) 2011-12

  June Avg High Low May
Corn 695 771 950 520 900
Soybeans 190 170 214 124 160
Grain sorghum 32 34 39 29 37
Wheat 687 659 742 495 702

WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION (Million bushels) 2011-2012

  June Avg High Low May 2010-11
All Wheat NA 2,009 2,100 1,905 2,043 2,208
All Winter Wheat 1,450 1,392 1,447 1,305 1,424 1,485
HRW 777 743 777 690 762 1,018
SRW 434 417 440 385 427 238
White 239 234 242 225 235 229

 

WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons)

  2011-2012 2010-2011
  June May June May
Wheat 184.26 181.26 187.12 182.20
Corn 111.89 129.14 117.44 122.19
Soybeans 61.59 61.85 64.53 63.81

 

WORLD PRODUCTION (Million metric tons)

  2011-2012 2010-2011
  June May June May
FSU-12 wheat 100.6 100.6 81.0 81.0
EU-27 wheat 131.5 138.6 135.7 135.8
Brazil corn 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0
Argentina corn 26.0 26.0 22.8 22.0
Brazil soybeans 72.5 72.5 74.5 73.0
Argentine soybeans 53.0 53.0 49.5 49.5

 

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