Grain Marketing Highlights – June 24, 2011

Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu

Corn Drops Limit on Long Liquidation
Nearby and new crop corn futures dropped the daily limit (30 cents) on Wednesday which leads to an expansion of the limit in today’s trade (45 cents per bushel). Several reasons have been cited for the sell-off, among them, a favorable Corn Belt weather forecast for the next 7 to 10 ten days, huge financial concerns around the globe including the situation in Greece, and the huge sell-off by fund buyers in the commodity markets. DTN reports that by the end of the day Wednesday 100,000 sell orders were waiting to be cleared. The Dow also took a big hit yesterday, nearly wiping out recent gains.

General economic concerns in the U.S. and World continue to outweigh the fundamentals at this point in time. Attention now turns to the Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks in All Positions reports to be released next Thursday, June 30.

USDA Export Sales Report 06/23
Pre-report estimates for weekly export sales of soybeans ranged from 5.5 to 14.7 million bushels. The weekly report showed total old-crop and new-crop export sales of 7.5 million bushels, below the O.2 million bushels needed this week to stay on pace with USDA’s demand projection of 1.54 billion bushels. Total shipments of 6.8 million bushels were below the 13.1 million bushels needed.

This report should be considered bearish.

Pre-report estimates had weekly corn export sales at 23.6 to 49.2 million bushels. The weekly report showed total old-crop and new-crop sales of 20.6 million bushels, with old-crop sales of 16.2 million bushels, above the 13.7 million bushels needed this week to stay on pace with USDA’s demand projection of 1.9 billion bushels. Total shipments of 46 million bushels were above the 44.5 million bushels needed. This report should be considered bullish.

Pre-report estimates for weekly wheat export sales ranged between 11 to 25.7 million bushels. The weekly report showed total export sales of 24.3 million bushels, above the 15.5 million bushels needed this week to stay on pace with USDA’s 1.05 billion bushel demand projection. Total shipments of 24.3 million bushels were above the 20 million bushels needed this week. This report should be considered bullish.

Market Strategy
Currently, Dec ‘11 corn futures are trading at $6.22; Nov ‘11 soybeans at $13.20; and July ‘11 SRW wheat at $6.21 per bushel. Using options may be beneficial to any pricing decisions needing to be made at this point in time, specifically for new crop corn or soybeans.

 

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