Grain Marketing Highlights

Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu

USDA’s April 10 Supply Demand Report Highlights
U.S. corn stocks were unchanged while U.S. soybean and wheat stocks were reduced from last month’s estimates. World corn, soybean and wheat stocks were also reduced.

US Supply/Demand Summary

Million Bushels

Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Crop Year

10-11

11-12

11-12

10-11

11-12

11-12

10-11

11-12

11-12

Report Date

04/10

03/09

04/10

04/10

03/09

04/10

04/10

03/09

04/10

Carryin

1,708

1,128

1,128

151

215

215

976

862

862

Production

12,447

12,358

12,358

3,329

3,056

3,056

2,207

1,999

1,999

Imports

28

20

20

14

15

15

97

120

120

Total Supply

14,182

13,506

13,506

3,495

3,286

3,286

3,279

2,982

2,982

Feed

4,793

4,600

4,600

132

145

180

Crush/Mill*

1,377

1,375

1,375

1,648

1,615

1,630

926

930

930

Ethanol Prod.

5,021

5,000

5,000

Seed/Other

30

30

30

130

121

116

71

82

79

Exports

1,835

1,700

1,700

1,501

1,275

1,290

1,289

1,000

1,000

Total Use

13,055

12,705

12,705

3,280

3,011

3,036

2,417

2,157

2,189

Carryout

1,128

801

801

215

275

250

862

825

793

Stocks/Use Rate

8.6%

6.3%

6.3%

6.6%

9.1%

8.2%

35.7%

38.2%

36.2%

Avg Price

$5.18

$6.20

$6.20

$11.30

$12.00

$12.25

$5.70

$7.30

$7.30

*Excludes corn for ethanol

World Supply/Demand Summary 

 

Million Metric Tons

 

Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Crop Year

10-11

11-12

11-12

10-11

11-12

11-12

10-11

11-12

11-12

Report Date

04/10

03/09

04/10

04/10

03/09

04/10

04/10

03/09

04/10

Carryin

144.11

129.07

125.02

59.99

68.76

69.12

202.5

199.49

198.72

Production

828.97

864.96

864.97

264.22

245.07

240.15

651.05

694.02

694.32

Total Supply

973.08

994.03

989.99

324.21

313.83

309.27

853.55

893.51

893.04

Feed

499.48

512.23

509.03

115.86

131.06

137.89

Crush

220.63

224.81

223.3

Other

348.58

357.26

358.26

30.56

30.09

29.9

538.98

552.87

548.87

Total Use

848.06

869.49

867.29

251.19

254.9

253.2

654.84

683.93

686.76

End Carryout

125.02

124.53

122.71

69.12

57.3

55.52

198.72

209.58

206.27

Stocks/Use Rate

14.7%

14.3%

14.1%

27.5%

22.5%

21.9%

30.3%

30.6%

30.0%


U.S. Highlights
· U.S. corn supply and demand projections for the ‘11/‘12 marketing year were unchanged from last month leaving ending stocks at 801 million bushels and the stocks-to-use ratio at 6.3%.
· Ending stocks estimates for U.S. soybeans were reduced by 25 million bushels due to a 15 million bushel increase in use for crushing, a 15 million bushel increase in projected exports, a 1 million bushel decrease in seed use, and a 4 million bushel decrease in the residual use category.
· The projected increase in domestic soybean demand resulted in the stocks-to-use ratio for U.S. soybeans to be lowered from 9.1 % last month to 8.2 % in April.
· U.S. wheat ending stocks were reduced 32 million bushels due to a 3 million bushel decrease in seed use, and a 35 million bushel increase in the demand for feed use resulting in the stocks-to-use ratio being lowered from 38.2 % to 36.2 %.

World Highlights
· World corn ending stocks were reduced 1.8 MMT from last month’s estimate due to a revision in China’s feed demand for the ‘10/‘11 marketing year.
· World soybean ending stocks were reduced from 57.30 to 55.52 MMT resulting in a world stocks-to-use ratio of 21.9 %.
· World wheat ending stocks were reduced to 206.27 MMT from last month’s estimate of 209.58 MMT resulting in the stocks-to-use ratio being lowered to 30.0 % as compared to 30.6 % a month ago.
· Combined Brazilian and Argentine soybean production was reduced 4 MMT from last month, now projected at a combined total of 111 MMT.
· Combined Brazilian and Argentine corn production was reduced by .5 MMT from last month’s USDA projection now estimated at 83.5 MMT.

Market Strategy
Although this report can be viewed as overall price positive, most of the revisions did not amount to much and to some degree fell short of expectations. U.S. corn planting is now officially underway.

As of Sunday, April 8 USDA’s weekly crop progress report estimated U.S. corn planting to be seven percent complete, compared to three percent last week and the five year average of 2 percent. Trader reaction to the report suggests that outside market forces are weighing more heavily on today’s trade than the report. In day trade, Dec ‘12 corn futures closed at $5.44 (down 6 cents per bushel); Nov ‘12 soybeans at $13.67 (down 15); and July ‘12 SRW wheat at $6.33 per bushel (down 15 on the day). The Dow is currently down 200 points. Old crop corn futures are inverted from the May to the July contract. These markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term. Trader attention will continue to focus on planting progress and new crop development. More information concerning crop development will be needed before advancing new crop sales.

For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist.

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