Grain Marketing Highlights – August 10, 2012

Carl German, Extension Crops Marketing Specialist; clgerman@udel.edu

US Supply/Demand Summary, 8/10/12, Million Bushels

 

Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Crop Year

11-12

12-13

12-13

11-12

12-13

12-13

11-12

12-13

12-13

Report Date

07/11

06/12

07/11

07/11

06/12

07/11

07/11

06/12

07/11

Carryin

1,128

903

1,021

215

170

145

862

743

743

Production

12,358

12,970

10,779

3,056

3,050

2,692

1,999

2,224

2,268

Imports

25

30

75

15

15

20

112

120

130

Tot Supply

13,511

13,903

11,875

3,286

3,235

2,857

2,974

3,087

3,141

                   
Feed

4,550

4,800

4,075

     

163

200

220

Crush/Mill*

1,360

1,390

1,320

1,690

1,610

1,515

941

950

950

Ethanol Prod

5,000

4,900

4,500

           
Seed/Other

30

30

30

101

124

116

77

73

73

Exports

1,550

1,600

1,300

1,350

1,370

1,110

1,050

1,200

1,200

Total Use

12,490

12,720

11,225

3,141

3,105

2,742

2,231

2,423

2,443

Carryout

1,021

1,183

650

145

130

115

743

664

698

Stocks/Use Rate

8.20%

9.30%

5.80%

4.60%

4.20%

4.20%

33.30%

27.40%

28.60%

Avg Price

6.1

5.9

8.2

$12.45

$14.00

$16.00

$7.24

$6.80

$8.30

*Excludes corn for ethanol

● The domestic estimates should be considered bullish for corn, bullish for soybeans and neutral for wheat.

● Ending stocks and stocks-to-use dropped for corn, soybeans and wheat.

● The buzz among commodity traders is likely to be whether the production numbers are low enough.

World S& D Summary, 8/10/12, Million Metric Tons

 

Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Crop Year

11-12

12-13

12-13

11-12

12-13

12-13

11-12

12-13

12-13

Report Date

07/11

06/12

07/11

07/11

06/12

07/11

07/11

06/12

07/11

Carryin

127.47

129.37

135.97

70.19

52.51

51.94

197.97

197.18

197.59

Production

876.84

905.23

849.01

236.03

267.16

260.46

695.18

665.33

662.83

Total Supply

1,004.3

1,034.6

984.98

306.22

319.67

312.4

893.15

862.51

860.42

                   
Feed

507.58

535.95

508.74

     

145.64

130.33

134.09

Crush      

224.64

232.39

227.03

     
Other

360.77

364.56

352.9

29.2

30.76

29.89

549.92

549.73

549.16

Total Use

868.35

900.51

861.64

253.84

263.15

256.92

695.56

680.06

683.25

                   
End Carryout

135.97

134.09

123.33

51.94

55.66

53.38

197.59

182.44

177.17

Stocks/Use Rat

15.70%

14.90%

14.30%

20.50%

21.20%

20.80%

28.40%

26.80%

25.90%

● Ending stocks were reduced across the board for corn, soybeans, and wheat.

● Stock-to-use ratios were also reduced across the board for the world estimates.

Market Strategy
Commodity markets are expected to remain extremely volatile in the near term, although some analysts would argue that the August estimates may already be factored into commodity prices. It is more likely that crop production for 2012 corn and soybean production will be further reduced in the September S & D estimates. Fundamentally, the outlook remains bullish and should continue to support the corn, soybean and wheat markets. Currently, Dec ‘12 corn futures are trading at $8.22 per bushel, Nov ‘12 soybeans at $16.54; with July ‘13 SRW wheat futures at $8.57 per bushel.

For technical assistance on making grain marketing decisions contact Carl L. German, Extension crops Marketing Specialist.

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